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How to Bet on NHL Underdogs: When to Fade the Favorite and Take the Plus Money

Photo of Igor Burdetskiy Igor Burdetskiy Follow on X March 9, 2025
0 4 minutes read

NHL underdog betting isn’t necessarily chasing high payoffs—it’s looking for opportunities where the market overvalues the favorite. Hockey is unique among major sports in that it can boast unpredictable results due to the fast tempo, close margins, and impact of goaltenders. Identifying value among underdogs requires strategy, timing, and awareness of major betting factors.

So, before placing a wager on an NHL extravaganza, what should you be looking out for?

Identifying Overvalued Favorites

Not every favorite is worth backing, and oddsmakers often inflate lines based on public perception rather than true probability. The most common reasons for an overpriced favorite include:

  • Recent Winning Streaks – Teams riding a hot streak often get inflated odds, but winning consistently in the NHL is difficult. Factors like fatigue and regression to the mean come into play.

  • Star Power Influence – Teams with elite players or high-profile rosters may see their odds shift based on name recognition rather than actual matchup advantages.

  • Public Betting Trends – When casual bettors overwhelmingly back a favorite, sportsbooks adjust lines to balance action rather than reflect true win probability.

It’s worth noting that underdogs become appealing when sportsbooks overvalue the favorite for reasons unrelated to actual game conditions.

Spotting Live Underdog Opportunities

Not all underdogs are created equal. Look for these circumstances when placing a bet:

  • Divisional Matchups – Underdogs usually perform well in these NHL games due to familiarity and the added excitement of playing an arch-nemesis. The team spread is usually lower than odds would suggest.

  • Strong Goaltending – A top-shelf goaltender can silence a top-shelf offense, rendering an underdog more likely to succeed. Monitor save percentages and workload to locate a potential advantage.

  • Recent Performance vs. Market Perception – Rosters coming off tough losses or lengthy road trips could be undervalued in spite of good underlying data, including expected goals (xG) or shot quality.

  • Back-to-Back Scheduling – Fatigue impacts performance, particularly when favorites play two consecutive nights. If a top team is starting the night with a backup goaltender or overnight traveling, an underdog might have a better chance than the line suggests.

Such situations create value by offering plus-money lines on teams that have a realistic chance of winning.

Key Betting Strategies for NHL Underdogs

Successful betting on NHL underdogs is more than just picking teams with long odds. The secret is discovering value—situations where an underdog has a chance to win on merit, but is being undervalued by the market. By taking into account advanced stats, home-ice advantage, and best bet formats, you can improve your chances of winning on plus-money bets.

Bet the Moneyline, Not the Puck Line

The best manner in which to bet on an underdog is to take the moneyline. The plus-money pay is the very same reason why underdogs are worth betting on to begin with. While the puck line (+1.5) does provide some margin, the smaller pay generally eliminates value. If you do believe an underdog does have a legitimate chance to win, the moneyline is the wager to make.

Keeping up to date with NHL news is also the secret to moneyline betting. Late-breaking updates on starting goaltenders, lineup changes, or even a team’s travel schedule can shift the odds, sometimes in favor of an underdog. A sharp bettor who stays informed can find value before sportsbooks adjust, making the moneyline even more profitable.

Target Home Underdogs

Home-ice advantage matters in the NHL, especially for underdogs. Familiar conditions, last line change (which allows coaches to control matchups), and crowd energy can tilt close games in their favor. When an underdog plays at home against an overrated road favorite, the betting value increases.

Consider First-Period Bets

If an underdog is known for starting strong but struggling late, first-period bets offer an alternative. These bets capitalize on early momentum while avoiding the risk of third-period collapses against deeper teams.

Line Shopping for the Best Odds

Odds vary between sportsbooks, so securing the best possible number is crucial. Small differences in moneyline prices significantly impact long-term profitability. A team listed at +140 at one sportsbook and +155 at another represents a noticeable difference in value.

Timing Your Bet: Early vs. Late Action

Timing your bet when betting on NHL underdogs can be just as crucial as selecting the right team. Market volatility, based on such factors as injuries, recent performances, and popular sentiment, may create value at some points before the start of a game. The Florida Panthers, for instance, entered the 2023–24 season as Eastern Conference champions but were not widely wagered to win the Stanley Cup.

Those gamblers who understood the team’s under-the-radar strengths at the start of the season could potentially receive good odds before the general market comprehended how effectively they played. This strategy is even more worthwhile in the Stanley Cup playoffs, where the upsets run rampant. In the 2024 playoffs, the Panthers achieved their first Stanley Cup championship with a seven-game series victory against the Edmonton Oilers. Bettors who bet on Florida early during the playoffs reaped good odds before the team’s momentum had become apparent.

Sportsbooks like FanDuel offer competitive odds on NHL games throughout the season, including the playoffs. During the playoffs, FanDuel Sportsbook provides moneyline, puck line, and series betting options, allowing bettors to capitalize on shifting lines. Recognizing a team’s potential early and understanding market movements can make the difference between a good bet and a great one.

The Art of Underdog Betting

There’s more involved with betting on NHL underdogs than merely making selections with hefty payoffs. It’s detecting where the favorites are being over-hyped and seeing underdogs that have a valid chance at winning. By utilizing matchup dynamics analysis, superior numbers, and good play betting in timely moments, you’re able to discover repeat value with plus-money wagers. It isn’t a matter of remaining undefeated on each wager, but creating profitable selections over time.

Igor Burdetskiy

Igor Burdetskiy

Founder, Editor-in-Chief, & CEO at Hooked on Hockey Magazine
I grew up playing Ball and Roller Hockey day and night somewhat religiously throughout elementary and middle school. The two don't compare though when I lace up the skates and hit the ice. I live and breathe hockey beyond the perspective of "it's just a game" and I will gladly talk hockey for hours with anyone. Hockey is more than just a lifestyle, it's a culture of passionate people who make memories every time the puck is dropped. Hockey has not only helped me get through some of the hardest times in life but has created some of the best memories to date. Want to talk hockey with me? Shoot me an email: iburdetskiy@hookedonhockey.com and let's talk some hockey!
Igor Burdetskiy
Photo of Igor Burdetskiy Igor Burdetskiy Follow on X March 9, 2025
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