How Does A Team’s Post-All Star Break Record Influence Playoff Success?
Since 1967-1968, there have been 38 All Star games played and 533 teams have played games following an All Star Break in that time span. Well, I went and looked at every single team’s post-All Star Break record (Olympic Breaks not included) and then looked to see how many points they earned out of the points possible. We then ranked every single team based on their points percentage and then looked to see how those teams finished in the playoffs that year. The old cliche that we hear every year is that you have to watch out for the hottest teams as they are playing their best hockey as the playoffs approach. But is this cliche true? Do the teams playing the best after the All-Star break actually have more success come playoff time? Let’s have a look. Listed below are the top 50 All-Star break records and where that team finished in the Postseason. The percentage in parenthesis is that team’s points percentage. So if you see 60.0%, that team earned 60.0% of the possible points after the All Star Break.
1. 1976-1977 Montreal Canadiens (88.3%) – Stanley Cup Champions
2. 1984-1985 Philadelphia Flyers (84.6%) – Stanley Cup Finalists
3. 1977-1978 Montreal Canadiens (84.3%) – Stanley Cup Champions
4. 1995-1996 Detroit Red Wings (84.2%) – Lost in 3rd round
5. 1972-1973 Montreal Canadiens (80.4%) – Stanley Cup Champions
6. 1981-1982 New York Islanders (81.5%) – Stanley Cup Champions
7. 1979-1980 Montreal Canadiens (80.4%) – Lost in 2nd round
8. 1970-1971 Boston Bruins (79.4%) – Lost in 1st round
9. 1975-1976 Montreal Canadiens (78.6%) – Stanley Cup Champions
10. 1974-1975 Montreal Canadiens (77.6%) – Lost in 3rd round
11. 2000-2001 Detroit Red Wings (76.8%) – Lost in 1st round
12. 1983-1984 Washington Capitals (76.8%) – Lost in 2nd round
13. 2002-2003 Detroit Red Wings (76.7%) – Lost in 1st round
14. 2010-2011 San Jose Sharks (76.6%) – Lost in 3rd round
15. 2002-2003 Colorado Avalanche (76.6%) – Lost in 1st round
16. 1971-1972 Boston Bruins (76.6%) – Stanley Cup Champions
17. 1973-1974 Chicago Black Hawks (76.6%) – Lost in 2nd round
18. 2006-2007 Pittsburgh Penguins (76.4%) – Lost in 1st round
19. 1985-1986 Edmonton Oilers (75.9%) – Lost in 2nd round
20. 2006-2007 Minnesota Wild (75.8%) – Lost in 1st round
21. 1992-1993 Boston Bruins (75.0%) – Lost in 1st round
22. 1971-1972 Montreal Canadiens (75.0%) – Lost in 1st round
23. 1982-1983 Edmonton Oilers (75.0%) – Stanley Cup Finalists
24. 1975-1976 Boston Bruins (75.0%) – Lost in 3rd round
25. 1973-1974 Philadelphia Flyers (75.0%) – Stanley Cup Champions
26. 1969-1970 Chicago Black Hawks (74.3%) – Lost in 2nd round
27. 2000-2001 New Jersey Devils (74.2%) – Stanley Cup Finalists
28. 1992-1993 Pittsburgh Penguins (74.2%) – Lost in 2nd round
29. 1972-1973 Boston Bruins (74.1%) – Lost in 1st round
30. 1988-1989 Montreal Canadiens (74.0%) – Stanley Cup Finalists
31. 1984-1985 Winnipeg Jets (73.9%) – Lost in 2nd round
32. 2006-2007 Ottawa Senators (73.4%) – Stanley Cup Finalists
33. 1967-1968 Montreal Canadiens (73.4%) – Stanley Cup Champions
34. 1976-1977 Philadelphia Flyers (73.4%) – Lost in 3rd round
35. 2003-2004 Tampa Bay Lightning (73.2%) – Stanley Cup Champions
36. 1988-1989 Calgary Flames (72.9%) – Stanley Cup Champions
37. 1977-1978 Boston Bruins (72.9%) – Stanley Cup Finalists
38. 2006-2007 Detroit Red Wings (72.7%) – Lost in 3rd round
39. 2007-2008 Anaheim Ducks (72.4%) – Lost in 1st round
40. 2002-2003 Ottawa Senators (72.4%) – Lost in 3rd round
41. 1999-2000 St. Louis Blues (72.4%) – Lost in 1st round
42. 1975-1976 Philadelphia Flyers (72.2%) – Stanley Cup Finalists
43. 2008-2009 Pittsburgh Penguins (72.1%) – Stanley Cup Champions
44. 2008-2009 Vancouver Canucks (72.1%) – Lost in 2nd round
45. 2006-2007 Vancouver Canucks (72.1%) – Lost in 2nd round
46. 2010-2011 Vancouver Canucks (71.9%) – Stanley Cup Finalists
47. 1968-1969 Montreal Canadiens (71.9%) – Stanley Cup Champions
48. 1980-1981 New York Islanders (71.7%) – Stanley Cup Champions
49. 1987-1988 Montreal Canadiens (71.7%) – Lost in 2nd round
50. 2000-2001 Dallas Stars (71.7%) – Lost in 2nd round
So what can we see from this? Well, of the top 50 records posted after the All-Star break, 13 of those teams went on to win the Stanley Cup, and another 8 finished as the runner up. That’s a pretty strong statement. 21 of the 50 teams made the Stanley Cup Finals. 13 of our 38 Champions looked at had a top 50 record. However, is that statistic deceiving? Of those 13 champions, only 2 have occurred in the last 20 years. Some may say, “Well, maybe fewer teams in the past 20 years have posted a top 50 season”. Actually that claim is false. 20 of the top 50 records have occurred in the past 20 years as more points can be earned by the introduction of the shootout and overtime, yet only 2 teams have gone on to win the Stanley Cup and only another 3 went on to reach the Finals. So only 5 out of the 20 teams to post a top 50 season in the last 20 years have gone on to reach the Stanley Cup Finals. This is in stark contrast to the 23 preceding years, where there were 30 top 50 seasons, 11 of the 30 won the Stanley Cup, and 16 of the 30 reached the Finals. So, has having a strong end to the regular season lost its weight? To analyze this, I went to see where the Stanley Cup Teams of the last 10 years placed in our overall ranking. The overall rankings consist of all 533 teams to play since 1967-1968 and we are just looking at the Champion and the Finalist of the past 10 All Star Seasons.
1998-1999
82. Dallas Stars (67.9%) – Stanley Cup Champions
423. Buffalo Sabres (48.7%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
1999-2000
437. New Jersey Devils (48.3%) – Stanley Cup Champions
316. Dallas Stars (55.2%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
2000-2001
95. Colorado Avalanche (67.2%) – Stanley Cup Champion
27. New Jersey Devils (74.2%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
2001-2002
137. Detroit Red Wings (64.3%) – Stanley Cup Champion
209. Carolina Hurricanes (60.0%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
2002-2003
194. New Jersey Devils (60.9%) – Stanley Cup Champions
133. Mighty Ducks of Anaheim (64.5%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
2003-2004
35. Tampa Bay Lightning (73.2%) – Stanley Cup Champion
196. Calgary Flames (60.7%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
2006-2007
114. Anaheim Ducks (65.6%) – Stanley Cup Champions
32. Ottawa Senators (73.4%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
2007-2008
217. Detroit Red Wings (59.7%) – Stanley Cup Champion
104. Pittsburgh Penguins (66.7%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
2008-2009
43. Pittsburgh Penguins (72.1%)
125. Detroit Red Wings (64.7%)
2010-2011
165. Boston Bruins (62.5%) – Stanley Cup Champions
46. Vancouver Canucks (71.9%) – Stanley Cup Finalist
What can we see from looking at the last 10 years of post-all star break records? Well we can clearly see that a team’s post All Star Break has almost zero influence on how it performs in the playoffs. We had just 1 final when both teams were inside the top 100. Our most recent Stanley Cup Champion posted the 165th best All Star Break Record since 1967-1968. So what does this mean? Well for starters, it definitely does not mean that a team can roll into the playoffs bone cold and expect to win anything. If we look at the bottom 50 teams since 1967-1968 (not shown here to save space), we have 1 Stanley Cup Champion (85-86 Canadiens – 518th) and 1 Stanley Cup Finalist (95-96 Panthers – 503rd). After that, we only had 2 other teams even advance to the Conference Finals. This suggests that if a team rolls in bone cold, there is a very slim chance that they will turn on the jets and make some noise in the playoffs.
Ultimately, the moral of the story is that a long time ago, coming into the playoffs hot used to bode well for a team. Nowadays, with the amount of parity in the league, every playoff series is tough no matter how well a team is playing at the moment and any team can beat any other on any given night. Thus I think that’s why we’ve seen the diminished importance occur in terms of the post-All Star break records. Another thing to point out is that a lot of these playoff teams nowadays are coming in hot. For example, in the 2010-2011 season, 11 teams came into the playoffs having earned more than 60.6% of the possible points. If a team were to play at that level for an entire season, that would put them on pace for a 100 point season. Imagine that. 11 teams playing at a 100 point season pace coming into the playoffs. Upsets are far more likely and will occur much more often and I think the data shows that. There are many unknowns still for this season as we come out of the All Star Break, but one thing we do know is that we can dispel the notion that the hottest team will make the most noise in the playoffs.
Prashanth Iyer
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