Before the regular season started, I made predictions for the Senators’ individual player outputs and overall team performance. These predictions were to be made comparable with the actual season-ending outputs and results. And, as the team is exactly halfway through the season, we can now get an idea of where the totals will be after another 41 games.
Here are the predictions from the beginning of the season:
Bobby Ryan – Goals: 38 | Assists: 25 | Points: 63
Jason Spezza – Goals: 25 | Assists: 60 | Points: 85
Kyle Turris – Goals: 25 | Assists: 25 | Points: 50
MacArthur – Goals: 18 | Assists: 30 | Points: 48
Erik Karlsson – Goals: 15 | Assists: 50 | Points: 65
Craig Anderson- Record: 38-18-4 | GAA: 1.50 | Save %: .938
Team Record: 48-27-7 | Points: 103
On the left are the current stats, in the middle, all stats multiplied by 2 to project for the remaining 41 games (assuming performance is similar), and on the right, my original predictions:
Bobby Ryan – Goals: 18 | Assists: 17 | Points: 34 —— (36 – 34 – 70) —— (38 – 24 – 63)
Jason Spezza – Goals: 11 | Assists: 19 | Points: 30 —— (22 – 38 – 60) —— (25 – 60 – 85)
Kyle Turris – Goals: 9 | Assists: 21 | Points: 29 —— (18 – 42 – 60) —— (25 – 25 – 50)
Clarke MacArthur – Goals: 11 | Assists: 17 | Points: 28 —— (22 – 34 – 56) —— (18 – 30 – 48)
Erik Karlsson – Goals: 10 | Assists: 27 | Points: 37 —— (20 – 54 – 74) —— (15 – 50 – 65)
Craig Anderson- Record: 10-9-4 | GAA: 3.27* | Save %: .901* —— (20 – 18 – 8) —— (38 – 18 – 4)
Team Record: 16-18-7 | Points: 39 —— (32 – 36 – 14 – 78) —— (48 – 27 – 7 – 103)
Significant numbers
For those who don’t want to go through all the numbers, here are some stats that stand out.
Positive
– Bobby Ryan hits 70 points with an increase in assists, and would improve on a career high of 64 points in a season
– Kyle Turris turns out to be more of a playmaker and does better than predicted with 18 goals and 42 assists, more than doubling his career high of 29 points
– Clarke MacArthur does better in all categories and has his second-best season with 56 points and career-high 22 goals
– Erik Karlsson is four points short of his 78-point Norris Trophy season, career-high 20 goals
Negative
– Jason Spezza under-performs with a 29 percent decrease in point output, majority of decrease comes from 37 percent fewer assists
– Craig Anderson under-performs, winning 47 percent less games than predicted.
-Save percentage and goals against average much lower that predicted.
-On pace for same number of total predicted losses (12 current – 24 predicted).
-Plays 23 percent fewer games
Mid-Season Review
As the Ottawa Senators played through their first 41 games of the 2013-14 season, it gradually occurred to me that I had made many offensive predictions and completely neglected to make any of the defensive variety. Maybe it was because I assumed the team would be at least half as good as they were last year on the back end. Well, they’re not — not even close — and that’s the main reason a number of individual career seasons aren’t translating into team success. The team has struggled mightily with breaking out of their own end, penalty killing, and puck control, and have allowed the second most goals in the league at the halfway mark as a result of struggles in those areas. And, it’s not usually the goaltender’s fault, but both of Ottawa’s netminders have not been as solid as they were last season, and have seen equal distribution of starts because of this. The same goes for many of the team’s top skaters whose defensive numbers have taken hits.
Of course, the statistics above are only projections, but they show plenty of promise even if the Senators miss the post-season. They also, however, magnify some problem areas that should be fixed with a combination of strategy calibration and perhaps a signing or trade. Stay tuned for the final prediction review for a definitive answer on where everything went right or wrong after another solid season of NHL hockey.
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